As many as one-third of Americans could already have some immunity to COVID-19, a Post analysis of publicly available data shows.
The figure is a combination of those who’ve had the virus — assuming they are offered some level of immunity — and people who’ve received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. That total is nearly 110 million Americans — or 33.2 percent of the population — with some protection against the virus.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates the total number of infections to be much higher than confirmed cases and has projected the actual infection count to be closer to 83.1 million between February and December 2020.
Add that to the 5,622,068 infections recorded by the COVID Tracking Project between January 1 and Thursday, plus the 21,698,606 people who the CDC says has received at least one dose of the vaccine to get to 109,892,726 Americans, minus those who’ve died or are currently hospitalized.
New Yorkers waiting for a COVID-19 test outside a City MD Urgent Care.G.N.Miller
The CDC has said those who’ve had the virus are afforded some level of natural immunity — though it’s not clear how long it lasts.
When it comes to the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which are both being distributed across the US, some immunity is reached following the first of two doses.
Pfizer reported their vaccine is roughly 52 percent effective after one dose, according to data published in the New England Journal of Medicine last December.
Moderna’s is even better — in a document submitted to the Food and Drug Administration, the drugmaker found their inoculation provided 80.2 percent protection after a single dose.
However, both of the vaccines are far more effective at warding off the virus after two doses with Pfizer reporting a 95 percent effectiveness rate after both doses and Moderna showing a 94.1 percent rate, according to the CDC.
The Post’s analysis accounted for the number of people who died from the virus and those who are currently hospitalized. It did not account for any overlap from those who’ve received the vaccine after previously recovering from the virus or those who currently have the bug but aren’t in the hospital.
Overall, the US is seeing cases trending downward in 41 states after a troubling holiday surge that saw a dramatic spike in infections in states across the country, according to data from the COVID Tracking Project.
Cases were down 17.2 percent nationally this week compared to last while hospitalizations were down 10.3 percent, the data shows.
Deaths, which tend to be a delayed indicator, are up 6.9 percent nationally and could be tied to holiday gatherings, the data shows.